Biescas 1–0 Cuarte: Result & Stats

Biescas

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuarte

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 23Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas18%

×Draw26%

Cuarte56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BiescasExpected goals in this matchCuarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.48

Biescas

0.70

Cuarte

1.48

Cuarte creates 111% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 112 away

0.44

creates per match

1.08

1.88

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Biescas

0.44

Cuarte

1.08

allows per match

Biescas

1.88

Cuarte

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par

Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Cuarte →

0–011%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Biescas or draw

44%

Biescas or Cuarte

74%

Draw or Cuarte

82%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+

Cuarte wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals

50%

Biescas 2+ goals

16%

Biescas 3+ goals

Cuarte 1+ goals

77%

Cuarte 2+ goals

43%

Cuarte 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)

24%

Cuarte (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.70

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Biescas scores more

18%

level

26%

Cuarte scores more

56%

Cuarte at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cuarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff