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Biescas vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Caspe
Caspe
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas21%
×Draw28%
Caspe52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
0.77
Caspe
1.39

Caspe creates 81% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 83 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
48%
Biescas or Caspe
72%
Draw or Caspe
79%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
6%
Caspe wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
54%
Biescas 2+ goals
18%
Biescas 3+ goals
4%
Caspe 1+ goals
75%
Caspe 2+ goals
40%
Caspe 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
29%
Caspe (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.77

Caspe attack 0.89 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Biescas scores more
21%
level
28%
Caspe scores more
52%

Caspe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Caspe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Biescas 1–2 Caspe

Caspe beat Biescas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti in Biescas.