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Biescas vs Cariñena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cariñena
Cariñena
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas31%
×Draw27%
Cariñena43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
1.14
Cariñena
1.40

Cariñena creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 82 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Cariñena
0.91

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Cariñena
1.83

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Cariñena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
57%
Biescas or Cariñena
73%
Draw or Cariñena
69%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
12%
Cariñena wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
68%
Biescas 2+ goals
32%
Biescas 3+ goals
11%
Cariñena 1+ goals
75%
Cariñena 2+ goals
41%
Cariñena 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
42%
Cariñena (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Biescas scores more
31%
level
27%
Cariñena scores more
43%

Cariñena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cariñena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Biescas 1–2 Cariñena

Cariñena beat Biescas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti in Biescas.