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Biescas vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Biescas
Biescas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 33Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Biescas19%
×Draw26%
Atlético Monzón56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biescas
0.78
Atlético Monzón
1.55

Atlético Monzón creates 99% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 115 away

creates per match

Biescas
0.44
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Biescas
1.88
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Biescas+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biescas ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Biescas or draw
44%
Biescas or Atlético Monzón
74%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
81%

Winning margin

Biescas wins by 2+
6%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Biescas 1+ goals
54%
Biescas 2+ goals
18%
Biescas 3+ goals
4%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Biescas (draw refunded)
25%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biescas at home — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biescas attack 0.44 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.78

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Biescas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Biescas scores more
19%
level
26%
Atlético Monzón scores more
56%

Atlético Monzón at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Monzón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Biescas 0 – 1 Atlético Monzón

Atlético Monzón beat Biescas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal De Futbol Fernando Escartin Coti in Biescas.