Biemenhorst 1–4 FC Bocholt: Result & Stats

Biemenhorst

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

FC Bocholt

D. J. Weidemann 77'

J. Dorfler 80' (pen)

A. Bayakala 70'

A. Budimbu 12'

S. Batarilo 9'

1/6/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Biemenhorst4%

×Draw9%

FC Bocholt86%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BiemenhorstExpected goals in this matchFC Bocholt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.63

3.25

Biemenhorst

0.63

FC Bocholt

3.25

FC Bocholt creates 416% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

0.33

creates per match

2.50

4.00

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Biemenhorst

0.33

FC Bocholt

2.50

allows per match

Biemenhorst

4.00

FC Bocholt

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biemenhorst+0.00on par

FC Bocholt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biemenhorst ↓

FC Bocholt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–17%

0–211%

0–312%

0–410%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–32%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Biemenhorst or draw

14%

Biemenhorst or FC Bocholt

91%

Draw or FC Bocholt

96%

Winning margin

Biemenhorst wins by 2+

1%

FC Bocholt wins by 2+

69%

Team goals

Biemenhorst 1+ goals

47%

Biemenhorst 2+ goals

13%

Biemenhorst 3+ goals

3%

FC Bocholt 1+ goals

96%

FC Bocholt 2+ goals

83%

FC Bocholt 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Biemenhorst (draw refunded)

5%

FC Bocholt (draw refunded)

95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biemenhorst at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

FC Bocholt away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biemenhorst attack 0.33 + FC Bocholt defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

FC Bocholt attack 2.50 + Biemenhorst defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Biemenhorst scores more

4%

level

9%

FC Bocholt scores more

86%

FC Bocholt at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "FC Bocholt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

12'

70'

77'

80'

J. DorflerPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff