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Biel-Bienne vs Young Boys II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Biel-Bienne
Biel-Bienne
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Young Boys II
Young Boys II
3/2/20251. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Tissot Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Biel-Bienne51%
×Draw22%
Young Boys II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biel-Bienne
1.91
Young Boys II
1.31

Biel-Bienne creates 46% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 85 away

creates per match

Biel-Bienne
1.86
Young Boys II
1.35

allows per match

Biel-Bienne
1.27
Young Boys II
1.96

finishing

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par
Young Boys II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biel-Bienne ↓

Young Boys II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Biel-Bienne or draw
74%
Biel-Bienne or Young Boys II
78%
Draw or Young Boys II
49%

Winning margin

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+
29%
Young Boys II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals
85%
Biel-Bienne 2+ goals
57%
Biel-Bienne 3+ goals
30%
Young Boys II 1+ goals
73%
Young Boys II 2+ goals
38%
Young Boys II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)
66%
Young Boys II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biel-Bienne at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.27 · 84 matches

Young Boys II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.96 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biel-Bienne attack 1.86 + Young Boys II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.91

Young Boys II attack 1.35 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Biel-Bienne scores more
51%
level
22%
Young Boys II scores more
26%

Biel-Bienne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Biel-Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Biel-Bienne 2–1 Young Boys II

Biel-Bienne beat Young Boys II 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Tissot Arena in Biel/Bienne.