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Biel-Bienne vs Rapperswil — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Biel-Bienne
Biel-Bienne
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rapperswil
Rapperswil
3/3/20241. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 21Tissot Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Biel-Bienne40%
×Draw23%
Rapperswil36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biel-Bienne
1.67
Rapperswil
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 87 away

creates per match

Biel-Bienne
1.86
Rapperswil
1.87

allows per match

Biel-Bienne
1.27
Rapperswil
1.48

finishing

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par
Rapperswil+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biel-Bienne ↓

Rapperswil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Biel-Bienne or draw
64%
Biel-Bienne or Rapperswil
77%
Draw or Rapperswil
60%

Winning margin

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+
21%
Rapperswil wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals
81%
Biel-Bienne 2+ goals
50%
Biel-Bienne 3+ goals
23%
Rapperswil 1+ goals
79%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
46%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)
53%
Rapperswil (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biel-Bienne at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.27 · 84 matches

Rapperswil away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biel-Bienne attack 1.86 + Rapperswil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rapperswil attack 1.87 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Biel-Bienne scores more
40%
level
23%
Rapperswil scores more
36%

Biel-Bienne at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Biel-Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Biel-Bienne 0–1 Rapperswil

Rapperswil beat Biel-Bienne 1-0 in 1. Liga Promotion on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Tissot Arena in Biel/Bienne.