Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Biel-Bienne vs Austria Lustenau — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Biel-Bienne
Biel-Bienne
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Tissot Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Biel-Bienne47%
×Draw21%
Austria Lustenau32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biel-Bienne
2.15
Austria Lustenau
1.75

Biel-Bienne creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Biel-Bienne
1.86
Austria Lustenau
1.79

allows per match

Biel-Bienne
1.71
Austria Lustenau
2.43

finishing

Biel-Bienne+0.00on par
Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biel-Bienne ↓

Austria Lustenau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Biel-Bienne or draw
68%
Biel-Bienne or Austria Lustenau
79%
Draw or Austria Lustenau
53%

Winning margin

Biel-Bienne wins by 2+
27%
Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Biel-Bienne 1+ goals
88%
Biel-Bienne 2+ goals
63%
Biel-Bienne 3+ goals
36%
Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
83%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
52%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Biel-Bienne (draw refunded)
60%
Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biel-Bienne at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biel-Bienne attack 1.86 + Austria Lustenau defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.15

Austria Lustenau attack 1.79 + Biel-Bienne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Biel-Bienne scores more
47%
level
21%
Austria Lustenau scores more
32%

Biel-Bienne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Biel-Bienne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Biel-Bienne 2–4 Austria Lustenau

Austria Lustenau beat Biel-Bienne 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Tissot Arena in Biel/Bienne.