Bidvest Wits 5–0 Baroka FC: Result & Stats

Bidvest Wits

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Baroka FC

P. Mahlambi 90'

E. Uzoenyi 85'

B. Mkhwanazi 73', 31'

D. Klate 38'

2/22/2017

Premier Soccer League · Round 18BidVest Stadium (Johannesburg, GA)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bidvest Wits52%

×Draw27%

Baroka FC21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bidvest WitsExpected goals in this matchBaroka FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.81

Bidvest Wits

1.44

Baroka FC

0.81

Bidvest Wits creates 78% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 66 away

1.50

creates per match

0.73

0.89

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Bidvest Wits

1.50

Baroka FC

0.73

allows per match

Bidvest Wits

0.89

Baroka FC

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidvest Wits ↓

Baroka FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bidvest Wits or draw

79%

Bidvest Wits or Baroka FC

73%

Draw or Baroka FC

48%

Winning margin

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+

26%

Baroka FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals

76%

Bidvest Wits 2+ goals

42%

Bidvest Wits 3+ goals

18%

Baroka FC 1+ goals

56%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

19%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)

71%

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidvest Wits at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 36 matches

Baroka FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.39 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidvest Wits attack 1.50 + Baroka FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

Baroka FC attack 0.73 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bidvest Wits scores more

52%

level

27%

Baroka FC scores more

21%

Bidvest Wits at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

38'

48'

58'

68'

S. Letsoalo← R. Matloga

70'

P. Mahlambi← Dominguês

73'

B. Mkhwanazi

78'

E. Uzoenyi← F. Mhango

84'

S. Sangweni← M. Matlakala

85'

E. Uzoenyi

90'

P. Mahlambi

Bidvest

Baroka

42

Tshinuna

3

Mahashe

12

▼

5

10

18

49

▼

Matlakala

25

Munetsi

35

Zikalala

22

▼

50

1

2

3

15

⚽2

Mkhwanazi

13

Hlanti

26

▼

Scott

7

⚽

Klate

11

▼

Dominguês

8

Monare

28

Keene

17

▼

Mhango

Manager: G. Hunt

58'▲X. Mlambo←▼G. Scott

70'▲P. Mahlambi←▼Dominguês

78'▲E. Uzoenyi←▼F. Mhango

Bidvest Wits substitutes

19Mlambo27Mahlambi37Uzoenyi4Khumalo16Josephs23Myeni25Malajila

Manager: J. Sakala

48'▲J. Garcia←▼M. Chauke

68'▲S. Letsoalo←▼R. Matloga

84'▲S. Sangweni←▼M. Matlakala

Baroka FC substitutes

44Garcia37Letsoalo39Sangweni32Motshegwa30Oscarine6Olaleng2Masenamela