Baroka FC 1–2 Bidvest Wits: Result & Stats

Baroka FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bidvest Wits

12/16/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 12Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baroka FC25%

×Draw32%

Bidvest Wits43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baroka FCExpected goals in this matchBidvest Wits

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.10

Baroka FC

0.77

Bidvest Wits

1.10

Bidvest Wits creates 43% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

0.81

creates per match

1.17

1.03

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Baroka FC

0.81

Bidvest Wits

1.17

allows per match

Baroka FC

1.03

Bidvest Wits

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baroka FC+0.00on par

Bidvest Wits+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baroka FC ↓

Bidvest Wits →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–117%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Baroka FC or draw

57%

Baroka FC or Bidvest Wits

68%

Draw or Bidvest Wits

75%

Winning margin

Baroka FC wins by 2+

8%

Bidvest Wits wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Baroka FC 1+ goals

54%

Baroka FC 2+ goals

18%

Baroka FC 3+ goals

4%

Bidvest Wits 1+ goals

67%

Bidvest Wits 2+ goals

30%

Bidvest Wits 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Baroka FC (draw refunded)

37%

Bidvest Wits (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baroka FC at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Bidvest Wits away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baroka FC attack 0.81 + Bidvest Wits defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Bidvest Wits attack 1.17 + Baroka FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baroka FC scores more

25%

level

32%

Bidvest Wits scores more

43%

Bidvest Wits at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bidvest Wits will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff