Bidezarra 1–1 San Juan: Result & Stats

Bidezarra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

San Juan

E. Izco 35'

J. Juanena 13'

11/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Bidezarra34%

×Draw29%

San Juan37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BidezarraExpected goals in this matchSan Juan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.13

Bidezarra

1.07

San Juan

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 62 away

1.20

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Bidezarra

1.20

San Juan

1.29

allows per match

Bidezarra

0.97

San Juan

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par

San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

San Juan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw

63%

Bidezarra or San Juan

71%

Draw or San Juan

66%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+

13%

San Juan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals

66%

Bidezarra 2+ goals

29%

Bidezarra 3+ goals

9%

San Juan 1+ goals

68%

San Juan 2+ goals

31%

San Juan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)

48%

San Juan (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

San Juan attack 1.29 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bidezarra scores more

34%

level

29%

San Juan scores more

37%

San Juan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Juanena

35'

E. Izco

Bidezarra

San

Manager: Iñaki Casado

Manager: Julen Foncillas