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Bidezarra vs River Ega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
River Ega
River Ega
4/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 2Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bidezarra47%
×Draw27%
River Ega26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.40
River Ega
0.98

Bidezarra creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
River Ega
1.00

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
River Ega
1.60

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
River Ega+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

River Ega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
74%
Bidezarra or River Ega
73%
Draw or River Ega
53%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
22%
River Ega wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
75%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
41%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
17%
River Ega 1+ goals
62%
River Ega 2+ goals
26%
River Ega 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
64%
River Ega (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

River Ega away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + River Ega defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.40

River Ega attack 1.00 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bidezarra scores more
47%
level
27%
River Ega scores more
26%

Bidezarra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidezarra vs River Ega

Bidezarra beat River Ega 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.