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Bidezarra vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
2/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 17Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bidezarra55%
×Draw23%
Peña Azagresa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.81
Peña Azagresa
1.05

Bidezarra creates 72% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 28 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
78%
Bidezarra or Peña Azagresa
77%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
45%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
31%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
84%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
54%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
27%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
65%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
28%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
72%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.81

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bidezarra scores more
55%
level
23%
Peña Azagresa scores more
22%

Bidezarra at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bidezarra 4 – 0 Peña Azagresa

Bidezarra beat Peña Azagresa 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.