Bidezarra 3–1 Cirbonero: Result & Stats

Bidezarra

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cirbonero

9/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 1Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bidezarra39%

×Draw27%

Cirbonero33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BidezarraExpected goals in this matchCirbonero

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.16

Bidezarra

1.29

Cirbonero

1.16

Bidezarra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 92 away

1.20

creates per match

1.35

0.97

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Bidezarra

1.20

Cirbonero

1.35

allows per match

Bidezarra

0.97

Cirbonero

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par

Cirbonero+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Cirbonero →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw

67%

Bidezarra or Cirbonero

73%

Draw or Cirbonero

61%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+

18%

Cirbonero wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals

72%

Bidezarra 2+ goals

37%

Bidezarra 3+ goals

14%

Cirbonero 1+ goals

69%

Cirbonero 2+ goals

32%

Cirbonero 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)

54%

Cirbonero (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Cirbonero away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Cirbonero defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cirbonero attack 1.35 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bidezarra scores more

39%

level

27%

Cirbonero scores more

33%

Bidezarra at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff