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Bidezarra vs Cantolagua — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cantolagua
Cantolagua
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bidezarra42%
×Draw28%
Cantolagua31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.31
Cantolagua
1.08

Bidezarra creates 21% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 77 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
Cantolagua
1.19

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
Cantolagua
1.42

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
Cantolagua+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Cantolagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
69%
Bidezarra or Cantolagua
72%
Draw or Cantolagua
58%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
19%
Cantolagua wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
73%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
38%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
14%
Cantolagua 1+ goals
66%
Cantolagua 2+ goals
29%
Cantolagua 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
58%
Cantolagua (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Cantolagua away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Cantolagua defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cantolagua attack 1.19 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bidezarra scores more
42%
level
28%
Cantolagua scores more
31%

Bidezarra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Bidezarra 2–2 Cantolagua

Bidezarra and Cantolagua drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.