Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bidezarra vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
4/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 30Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bidezarra46%
×Draw27%
Beti Kozkor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.38
Beti Kozkor
0.98

Bidezarra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 93 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
73%
Bidezarra or Beti Kozkor
73%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
54%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
22%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
75%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
40%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
16%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
62%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
26%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
63%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bidezarra scores more
46%
level
27%
Beti Kozkor scores more
27%

Bidezarra at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidezarra vs Beti Kozkor

Beti Kozkor beat Bidezarra 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.