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Bidezarra vs Avance Ezcabarte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Bidezarra
Bidezarra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avance Ezcabarte
Avance Ezcabarte
4/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 28Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bidezarra45%
×Draw28%
Avance Ezcabarte27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidezarra
1.35
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

Bidezarra creates 39% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 64 away

creates per match

Bidezarra
1.20
Avance Ezcabarte
0.97

allows per match

Bidezarra
0.97
Avance Ezcabarte
1.50

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par
Avance Ezcabarte+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Avance Ezcabarte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw
73%
Bidezarra or Avance Ezcabarte
72%
Draw or Avance Ezcabarte
55%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+
21%
Avance Ezcabarte wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals
74%
Bidezarra 2+ goals
39%
Bidezarra 3+ goals
15%
Avance Ezcabarte 1+ goals
62%
Avance Ezcabarte 2+ goals
25%
Avance Ezcabarte 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)
63%
Avance Ezcabarte (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Avance Ezcabarte away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Avance Ezcabarte defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Avance Ezcabarte attack 0.97 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bidezarra scores more
45%
level
28%
Avance Ezcabarte scores more
27%

Bidezarra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Bidezarra 0–0 Avance Ezcabarte

Bidezarra and Avance Ezcabarte drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Bidezarra de Noain in Noain.