Bidezarra 4–1 Atlético Artajonés: Result & Stats

Bidezarra

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Artajonés

3/22/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 27Campo Bidezarra de Noain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Bidezarra56%

×Draw25%

Atlético Artajonés19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BidezarraExpected goals in this matchAtlético Artajonés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.82

Bidezarra

1.61

Atlético Artajonés

0.82

Bidezarra creates 96% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 34 away

1.20

creates per match

0.68

0.97

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Bidezarra

1.20

Atlético Artajonés

0.68

allows per match

Bidezarra

0.97

Atlético Artajonés

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidezarra+0.00on par

Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidezarra ↓

Atlético Artajonés →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bidezarra or draw

81%

Bidezarra or Atlético Artajonés

75%

Draw or Atlético Artajonés

44%

Winning margin

Bidezarra wins by 2+

30%

Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+

Team goals

Bidezarra 1+ goals

80%

Bidezarra 2+ goals

48%

Bidezarra 3+ goals

22%

Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals

56%

Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals

20%

Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bidezarra (draw refunded)

75%

Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bidezarra at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.97 · 66 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bidezarra attack 1.20 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.61

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Bidezarra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bidezarra scores more

56%

level

25%

Atlético Artajonés scores more

19%

Bidezarra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bidezarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff