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Bidco United vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 0
Western Stima
Western Stima
E. Gichimu 43'
7/30/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 27Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Bidco United37%
×Draw30%
Western Stima33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.09
Western Stima
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Western Stima
0.94

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Western Stima
1.33

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
67%
Bidco United or Western Stima
70%
Draw or Western Stima
63%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
15%
Western Stima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
66%
Bidco United 2+ goals
30%
Bidco United 3+ goals
10%
Western Stima 1+ goals
63%
Western Stima 2+ goals
26%
Western Stima 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
53%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.33 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Western Stima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Western Stima attack 0.94 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bidco United scores more
37%
level
30%
Western Stima scores more
33%

Bidco United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
E. Gichimu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 1–0 Western Stima

Bidco United beat Western Stima 1-0 in FKF Premier League on July 30, 2021.

Goals: E. Gichimu (43').

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.