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Bidco United vs Tusker — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Tusker
Tusker
12/13/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 13SportPesa Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Bidco United28%
×Draw29%
Tusker42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
0.93
Tusker
1.20

Tusker creates 29% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 147 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Tusker
1.34

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Tusker
1.00

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
58%
Bidco United or Tusker
71%
Draw or Tusker
72%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
10%
Tusker wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
61%
Bidco United 2+ goals
24%
Bidco United 3+ goals
7%
Tusker 1+ goals
70%
Tusker 2+ goals
34%
Tusker 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
40%
Tusker (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Tusker defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Tusker attack 1.34 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bidco United scores more
28%
level
29%
Tusker scores more
42%

Tusker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tusker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 2–3 Tusker

Tusker beat Bidco United 3-2 in FKF Premier League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at SportPesa Arena in Murang'a.