Bidco United 2–3 Police: Result & Stats

Bidco United

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Police

T. Wainaina 75'

Yobo 74'

E. Misuri 90'

E. Zakayo 44'

D. Simiyu 24'

11/26/2025

FKF Premier League · Round 2Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bidco United19%

×Draw33%

Police49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bidco UnitedExpected goals in this matchPolice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.56

1.10

Bidco United

0.56

Police

1.10

Police creates 96% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

0.55

creates per match

1.11

1.09

allows per match

0.58

creates per match

Bidco United

0.55

Police

1.11

allows per match

Bidco United

1.09

Police

0.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par

Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–121%

0–212%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw

51%

Bidco United or Police

67%

Draw or Police

81%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+

4%

Police wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals

43%

Bidco United 2+ goals

11%

Bidco United 3+ goals

2%

Police 1+ goals

67%

Police 2+ goals

30%

Police 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)

28%

Police (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Police away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.55 + Police defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.56

Police attack 1.11 + Bidco United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bidco United scores more

19%

level

33%

Police scores more

49%

Police at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

44'

74'

75'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff