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Bidco United vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
2/11/2024FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Bidco United36%
×Draw30%
Nzoia Sugar34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.09
Nzoia Sugar
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Nzoia Sugar
1.01

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
66%
Bidco United or Nzoia Sugar
70%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
64%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
15%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
66%
Bidco United 2+ goals
30%
Bidco United 3+ goals
10%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
52%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.01 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bidco United scores more
36%
level
30%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
34%

Bidco United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Bidco United 1–2 Nzoia Sugar

Nzoia Sugar beat Bidco United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.