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Bidco United vs Nakuru AllStars — Super League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
2 – 0
Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
8/1/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bidco United64%
×Draw25%
Nakuru AllStars11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.55
Nakuru AllStars
0.48

Bidco United creates 223% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bidco United
1.35
Nakuru AllStars
0.50

allows per match

Bidco United
0.47
Nakuru AllStars
1.75

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Nakuru AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
89%
Bidco United or Nakuru AllStars
75%
Draw or Nakuru AllStars
36%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
35%
Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
79%
Bidco United 2+ goals
46%
Bidco United 3+ goals
20%
Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
38%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
8%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
85%
Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.50 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bidco United scores more
64%
level
25%
Nakuru AllStars scores more
11%

Bidco United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Bidco United 2–0 Nakuru AllStars

Bidco United beat Nakuru AllStars 2-0 in Super League on August 1, 2018.