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Bidco United vs Nairobi Stima — Super League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
0 – 0
Nairobi Stima
Nairobi Stima
9/15/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bidco United42%
×Draw27%
Nairobi Stima30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.33
Nairobi Stima
1.08

Bidco United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Bidco United
1.35
Nairobi Stima
1.69

allows per match

Bidco United
0.47
Nairobi Stima
1.31

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Nairobi Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Nairobi Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
70%
Bidco United or Nairobi Stima
73%
Draw or Nairobi Stima
58%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
19%
Nairobi Stima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
74%
Bidco United 2+ goals
38%
Bidco United 3+ goals
15%
Nairobi Stima 1+ goals
66%
Nairobi Stima 2+ goals
29%
Nairobi Stima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
58%
Nairobi Stima (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Nairobi Stima away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + Nairobi Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nairobi Stima attack 1.69 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bidco United scores more
42%
level
27%
Nairobi Stima scores more
30%

Bidco United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Bidco United 0–0 Nairobi Stima

Bidco United and Nairobi Stima drew 0-0 in Super League on September 15, 2018.