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Bidco United vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
2/8/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 20Kenyatta Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bidco United35%
×Draw30%
Nairobi City Stars35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.03
Nairobi City Stars
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bidco United
0.86
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Bidco United
1.06
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
65%
Bidco United or Nairobi City Stars
70%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
65%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
13%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
64%
Bidco United 2+ goals
28%
Bidco United 3+ goals
9%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
65%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
28%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
50%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.06 · 101 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 0.86 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Bidco United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Bidco United scores more
35%
level
30%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
35%

Bidco United at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs Nairobi City Stars

Bidco United and Nairobi City Stars drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium in Machakos.