Bidco United 2–1 Kangemi All Stars: Result & Stats

Bidco United

FT

2 – 1

Kangemi All Stars

6/16/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United57%

×Draw26%

Kangemi All Stars18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bidco UnitedExpected goals in this matchKangemi All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.73

Bidco United

1.54

Kangemi All Stars

0.73

Bidco United creates 111% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

1.00

0.47

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Bidco United

1.35

Kangemi All Stars

1.00

allows per match

Bidco United

0.47

Kangemi All Stars

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par

Kangemi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Kangemi All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw

82%

Bidco United or Kangemi All Stars

74%

Draw or Kangemi All Stars

43%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+

30%

Kangemi All Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals

79%

Bidco United 2+ goals

45%

Bidco United 3+ goals

20%

Kangemi All Stars 1+ goals

52%

Kangemi All Stars 2+ goals

17%

Kangemi All Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)

76%

Kangemi All Stars (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Kangemi All Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + Kangemi All Stars defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kangemi All Stars attack 1.00 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bidco United scores more

57%

level

26%

Kangemi All Stars scores more

18%

Bidco United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff