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Bidco United vs GFE 105 — Super League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
1 – 0
GFE 105
GFE 105
3/3/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United67%
×Draw23%
GFE 10510%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.65
GFE 105
0.47

Bidco United creates 251% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bidco United
1.35
GFE 105
0.47

allows per match

Bidco United
0.47
GFE 105
1.94

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

GFE 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
90%
Bidco United or GFE 105
77%
Draw or GFE 105
33%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
38%
GFE 105 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
81%
Bidco United 2+ goals
49%
Bidco United 3+ goals
23%
GFE 105 1+ goals
37%
GFE 105 2+ goals
8%
GFE 105 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
87%
GFE 105 (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + GFE 105 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

GFE 105 attack 0.47 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bidco United scores more
67%
level
23%
GFE 105 scores more
10%

Bidco United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bidco United vs GFE 105

Bidco United beat GFE 105 1-0 in Super League on March 3, 2018.