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Bidco United vs FC Talanta — Super League 2018

Bidco United
Bidco United
FT
2 – 0
FC Talanta
FC Talanta
9/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United46%
×Draw29%
FC Talanta25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bidco United
1.26
FC Talanta
0.84

Bidco United creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Bidco United
1.35
FC Talanta
1.22

allows per match

Bidco United
0.47
FC Talanta
1.17

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par
FC Talanta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

FC Talanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw
75%
Bidco United or FC Talanta
71%
Draw or FC Talanta
54%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+
21%
FC Talanta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals
72%
Bidco United 2+ goals
36%
Bidco United 3+ goals
13%
FC Talanta 1+ goals
57%
FC Talanta 2+ goals
21%
FC Talanta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)
65%
FC Talanta (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

FC Talanta away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + FC Talanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

FC Talanta attack 1.22 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bidco United scores more
46%
level
29%
FC Talanta scores more
25%

Bidco United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Bidco United 2–0 FC Talanta

Bidco United beat FC Talanta 2-0 in Super League on September 22, 2018.