Bidco United 2–0 Administration Police Fc

Bidco United

FT

2 – 0

Administration Police Fc

3/17/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bidco United56%

×Draw26%

Administration Police Fc18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bidco UnitedExpected goals in this matchAdministration Police Fc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.73

Bidco United

1.51

Administration Police Fc

0.73

Bidco United creates 107% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

1.35

creates per match

1.00

0.47

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bidco United

1.35

Administration Police Fc

1.00

allows per match

Bidco United

0.47

Administration Police Fc

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bidco United+0.00on par

Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bidco United ↓

Administration Police Fc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bidco United or draw

82%

Bidco United or Administration Police Fc

74%

Draw or Administration Police Fc

44%

Winning margin

Bidco United wins by 2+

29%

Administration Police Fc wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bidco United 1+ goals

78%

Bidco United 2+ goals

44%

Bidco United 3+ goals

19%

Administration Police Fc 1+ goals

52%

Administration Police Fc 2+ goals

17%

Administration Police Fc 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bidco United (draw refunded)

76%

Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bidco United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bidco United attack 1.35 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Bidco United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bidco United scores more

56%

level

26%

Administration Police Fc scores more

18%

Bidco United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bidco United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff