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Bicskei vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Bicskei
Bicskei
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
9/28/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 10Bicskei Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bicskei62%
×Draw21%
Csornai SE17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bicskei
2.01
Csornai SE
0.95

Bicskei creates 112% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bicskei
1.44
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Bicskei
0.89
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Bicskei+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bicskei ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bicskei or draw
83%
Bicskei or Csornai SE
79%
Draw or Csornai SE
38%

Winning margin

Bicskei wins by 2+
38%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bicskei 1+ goals
87%
Bicskei 2+ goals
59%
Bicskei 3+ goals
32%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
61%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
25%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bicskei (draw refunded)
78%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bicskei at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bicskei attack 1.44 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.01

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Bicskei defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bicskei scores more
62%
level
21%
Csornai SE scores more
17%

Bicskei at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bicskei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bicskei vs Csornai SE

Bicskei and Csornai SE drew 2-2 in NB III - Southwest on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Bicskei Sportpálya in Bicske.