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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
R. Frimpong 78', 26'
M. Appiah 36'
10/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars65%
×Draw21%
Real Tamale14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.90
Real Tamale
0.73

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 160% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Real Tamale
0.86

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Real Tamale
2.22

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
86%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Real Tamale
79%
Draw or Real Tamale
35%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
39%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
85%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
56%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
29%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
52%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
17%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
83%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.90

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
65%
level
21%
Real Tamale scores more
14%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
26'
R. Frimpong
35'
36'
M. Appiah
72'
E. Bosomtwi← E. Bosomtwi
72'
M. Wayo← M. Wayo
78'
R. Frimpong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Real Tamale

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Real Tamale 3-0 in Premier League on October 8, 2023.

Goals: R. Frimpong (26', 78'), M. Appiah (36').

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.