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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
11/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars55%
×Draw27%
Dreams18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.43
Dreams
0.69

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 107% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
82%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Dreams
73%
Draw or Dreams
45%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
28%
Dreams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
76%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
42%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
17%
Dreams 1+ goals
50%
Dreams 2+ goals
15%
Dreams 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
75%
Dreams (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.43

Dreams attack 0.77 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
55%
level
27%
Dreams scores more
18%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Dreams

Bibiani Gold Stars and Dreams drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.