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Bibiani Gold Stars vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Bibiani Gold Stars
Bibiani Gold Stars
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
3/17/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars58%
×Draw27%
Bofoakwe Tano15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.44
Bofoakwe Tano
0.60

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 140% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
1.58
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars
0.61
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw
85%
Bibiani Gold Stars or Bofoakwe Tano
73%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
42%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+
30%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals
76%
Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals
42%
Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals
18%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
45%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
12%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)
79%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more
58%
level
27%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
15%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bibiani Gold Stars 2–1 Bofoakwe Tano

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Bofoakwe Tano 2-1 in Premier League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.