Bibiani Gold Stars 2–0 Aduana Stars: Result & Stats

Bibiani Gold Stars

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aduana Stars

10/20/2024

Premier League · Round 7Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bibiani Gold Stars55%

×Draw27%

Aduana Stars18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bibiani Gold StarsExpected goals in this matchAduana Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.68

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.42

Aduana Stars

0.68

Bibiani Gold Stars creates 109% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 110 away

1.58

creates per match

0.75

0.61

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Bibiani Gold Stars

1.58

Aduana Stars

0.75

allows per match

Bibiani Gold Stars

0.61

Aduana Stars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bibiani Gold Stars+0.00on par

Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bibiani Gold Stars ↓

Aduana Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bibiani Gold Stars or draw

82%

Bibiani Gold Stars or Aduana Stars

73%

Draw or Aduana Stars

45%

Winning margin

Bibiani Gold Stars wins by 2+

28%

Aduana Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bibiani Gold Stars 1+ goals

76%

Bibiani Gold Stars 2+ goals

41%

Bibiani Gold Stars 3+ goals

17%

Aduana Stars 1+ goals

49%

Aduana Stars 2+ goals

15%

Aduana Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bibiani Gold Stars (draw refunded)

75%

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bibiani Gold Stars at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.61 · 84 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bibiani Gold Stars attack 1.58 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + Bibiani Gold Stars defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bibiani Gold Stars scores more

55%

level

27%

Aduana Stars scores more

18%

Bibiani Gold Stars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bibiani Gold Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Aduana Stars

Bibiani Gold Stars beat Aduana Stars 2-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.

Bibiani Gold Stars vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bibiani Gold Stars vs Aduana Stars