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Biashara United vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Biashara United
Biashara United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
3/15/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 18CCM Kirumba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Biashara United46%
×Draw32%
Tanzania Prisons23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biashara United
1.12
Tanzania Prisons
0.70

Biashara United creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 114 away

creates per match

Biashara United
1.00
Tanzania Prisons
0.75

allows per match

Biashara United
0.65
Tanzania Prisons
1.24

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw
77%
Biashara United or Tanzania Prisons
68%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
54%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+
19%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals
67%
Biashara United 2+ goals
31%
Biashara United 3+ goals
10%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
50%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
16%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)
67%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Biashara United scores more
46%
level
32%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
23%

Biashara United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Biashara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biashara United vs Tanzania Prisons

Biashara United beat Tanzania Prisons 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 15, 2022.

The match was played at CCM Kirumba Stadium in Mwanza.