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Biashara United vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Biashara United
Biashara United
FT
3 – 0
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
12/18/2020Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Karume Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Biashara United48%
×Draw30%
Mbeya City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biashara United
1.20
Mbeya City
0.70

Biashara United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 81 away

creates per match

Biashara United
1.00
Mbeya City
0.75

allows per match

Biashara United
0.65
Mbeya City
1.40

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw
78%
Biashara United or Mbeya City
70%
Draw or Mbeya City
52%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+
21%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals
70%
Biashara United 2+ goals
34%
Biashara United 3+ goals
12%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
50%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
16%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)
69%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.40 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + Mbeya City defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mbeya City attack 0.75 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Biashara United scores more
48%
level
30%
Mbeya City scores more
22%

Biashara United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Biashara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Biashara United 3–0 Mbeya City

Biashara United beat Mbeya City 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 18, 2020.

The match was played at Karume Football Stadium in Musoma.