Biashara United 1–0 JKT Tanzania: Result & Stats

Biashara United

FT

1 – 0

JKT Tanzania

6/19/2021

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 29Karume Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Biashara United43%

×Draw31%

JKT Tanzania26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Biashara UnitedExpected goals in this matchJKT Tanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.80

Biashara United

1.13

JKT Tanzania

0.80

Biashara United creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

1.00

creates per match

0.95

0.65

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Biashara United

1.00

JKT Tanzania

0.95

allows per match

Biashara United

0.65

JKT Tanzania

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

JKT Tanzania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw

74%

Biashara United or JKT Tanzania

69%

Draw or JKT Tanzania

57%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+

18%

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals

68%

Biashara United 2+ goals

31%

Biashara United 3+ goals

11%

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

55%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

19%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)

63%

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Biashara United scores more

43%

level

31%

JKT Tanzania scores more

26%

Biashara United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Biashara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff