Biashara United 1–0 Ihefu: Result & Stats

Biashara United

FT

1 – 0

Ihefu

10/14/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 6Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Biashara United51%

×Draw30%

Ihefu18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Biashara UnitedExpected goals in this matchIhefu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.61

Biashara United

1.23

Ihefu

0.61

Biashara United creates 102% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 47 away

1.00

creates per match

0.57

0.65

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Biashara United

1.00

Ihefu

0.57

allows per match

Biashara United

0.65

Ihefu

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par

Ihefu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

Ihefu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw

82%

Biashara United or Ihefu

70%

Draw or Ihefu

49%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+

23%

Ihefu wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals

71%

Biashara United 2+ goals

35%

Biashara United 3+ goals

13%

Ihefu 1+ goals

46%

Ihefu 2+ goals

13%

Ihefu 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)

74%

Ihefu (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

Ihefu away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.47 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + Ihefu defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ihefu attack 0.57 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Biashara United scores more

51%

level

30%

Ihefu scores more

18%

Biashara United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Biashara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff