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Bhutan W vs Saudi Arabia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Bhutan W
Bhutan W
FT
4 – 2
Saudi Arabia W
Saudi Arabia W
9/28/2022Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bhutan W38%
×Draw23%
Saudi Arabia W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bhutan W
1.61
Saudi Arabia W
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bhutan W
2.14
Saudi Arabia W
1.25

allows per match

Bhutan W
2.00
Saudi Arabia W
1.08

finishing

Bhutan W+0.00on par
Saudi Arabia W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan W ↓

Saudi Arabia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bhutan W or draw
61%
Bhutan W or Saudi Arabia W
77%
Draw or Saudi Arabia W
62%

Winning margin

Bhutan W wins by 2+
19%
Saudi Arabia W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bhutan W 1+ goals
80%
Bhutan W 2+ goals
48%
Bhutan W 3+ goals
22%
Saudi Arabia W 1+ goals
80%
Saudi Arabia W 2+ goals
48%
Saudi Arabia W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bhutan W (draw refunded)
49%
Saudi Arabia W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhutan W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Saudi Arabia W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan W attack 2.14 + Saudi Arabia W defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.61

Saudi Arabia W attack 1.25 + Bhutan W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bhutan W scores more
38%
level
23%
Saudi Arabia W scores more
39%

Saudi Arabia W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saudi Arabia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Bhutan W 4–2 Saudi Arabia W

Bhutan W beat Saudi Arabia W 4-2 in Friendlies Women on September 28, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Abha.