Bhutan W 1–3 Malaysia W: Result & Stats

Bhutan W

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Malaysia W

Y. Bidha 25'

F. Muhamad 90'

N. Ainsyah 45'

I. Zulgafli 29'

6/3/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesChanglimithang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bhutan W47%

×Draw21%

Malaysia W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bhutan WExpected goals in this matchMalaysia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.73

Bhutan W

2.12

Malaysia W

1.73

Bhutan W creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

2.14

creates per match

1.45

2.00

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Bhutan W

2.14

Malaysia W

1.45

allows per match

Bhutan W

2.00

Malaysia W

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bhutan W+0.00on par

Malaysia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan W ↓

Malaysia W →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bhutan W or draw

68%

Bhutan W or Malaysia W

79%

Draw or Malaysia W

53%

Winning margin

Bhutan W wins by 2+

27%

Malaysia W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bhutan W 1+ goals

88%

Bhutan W 2+ goals

62%

Bhutan W 3+ goals

35%

Malaysia W 1+ goals

82%

Malaysia W 2+ goals

52%

Malaysia W 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Bhutan W (draw refunded)

59%

Malaysia W (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bhutan W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Malaysia W away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan W attack 2.14 + Malaysia W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.12

Malaysia W attack 1.45 + Bhutan W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bhutan W scores more

47%

level

21%

Malaysia W scores more

32%

Bhutan W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bhutan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Y. Bidha

29'

I. Zulgafli

45'

N. Ainsyah

54'

D. Namgyel← R. Sunita

54'

T. Choden← P. C. Tshering

69'

A. Zamzaihiri← N. Sani

73'

P. Choeki← D. Yangdon

73'

G. Ghalley← J. Choden

78'

N. M. Firdaus← A. A. Lamsin

87'

L. Sonam← T. Lhaden

89'

F. Muhamad← N. Ainsyah

90+1'

S. Choden

90'

F. Muhamad

Bhutan

Malaysia

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

54'▲D. Namgyel←▼R. Sunita

54'▲T. Choden←▼P. C. Tshering

73'▲P. Choeki←▼D. Yangdon

73'▲G. Ghalley←▼J. Choden

87'▲L. Sonam←▼T. Lhaden

Bhutan W substitutes

22Dema21Yuden20Choeki11Namgyel10Sonam18Yangchen17Ghalley23Wangmo4Wangmo3Choden7Yangden2Choden

69'▲A. Zamzaihiri←▼N. Sani

78'▲N. M. Firdaus←▼A. A. Lamsin

89'▲F. Muhamad←▼N. Ainsyah

Malaysia W substitutes

16N.4Arissa5Saidin8Muhamad9Soberi11Zamzaihiri12Thivashini14Nurfarisya20Firdaus24Kanchenjeet25Azzlyeanieh26Addin

Friendlies Women: Bhutan W 1–3 Malaysia W

Malaysia W beat Bhutan W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on June 3, 2025.

Goals: Y. Bidha (25'), I. Zulgafli (29'), N. Ainsyah (45'), F. Muhamad (90').

The match was played at Changlimithang Stadium in Thimphu.

Bhutan W vs Malaysia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Bhutan W 1–3 Malaysia W