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Bhutan W vs Hong Kong W — Friendlies Women 2026

Bhutan W
Bhutan W
CANC
12:00
Hong Kong W
Hong Kong W
3/31/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bhutan W44%
×Draw21%
Hong Kong W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bhutan W
2.02
Hong Kong W
1.77

Bhutan W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bhutan W
2.14
Hong Kong W
1.55

allows per match

Bhutan W
2.00
Hong Kong W
1.91

finishing

Bhutan W+0.00on par
Hong Kong W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan W ↓

Hong Kong W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bhutan W or draw
66%
Bhutan W or Hong Kong W
79%
Draw or Hong Kong W
56%

Winning margin

Bhutan W wins by 2+
25%
Hong Kong W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bhutan W 1+ goals
87%
Bhutan W 2+ goals
60%
Bhutan W 3+ goals
33%
Hong Kong W 1+ goals
83%
Hong Kong W 2+ goals
53%
Hong Kong W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bhutan W (draw refunded)
56%
Hong Kong W (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhutan W at home — creates 2.14, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

Hong Kong W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan W attack 2.14 + Hong Kong W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hong Kong W attack 1.55 + Bhutan W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bhutan W scores more
44%
level
21%
Hong Kong W scores more
34%

Bhutan W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bhutan W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bhutan W host Hong Kong W

March 31, 2024: Bhutan W take on Hong Kong W in Friendlies Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bhutan W host Hong Kong W at Changlimithang National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.