Bhutan U19 4–1 Namlha: Result & Stats

Bhutan U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Namlha

8/27/2023

Premier League · Round 3Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bhutan U1974%

×Draw14%

Namlha12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bhutan U19Expected goals in this matchNamlha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.35

Bhutan U19

3.33

Namlha

1.35

Bhutan U19 creates 147% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 9 away

1.55

creates per match

0.89

1.82

allows per match

5.11

creates per match

Bhutan U19

1.55

Namlha

0.89

allows per match

Bhutan U19

1.82

Namlha

5.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bhutan U19+0.00on par

Namlha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bhutan U19 ↓

Namlha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Bhutan U19 or draw

88%

Bhutan U19 or Namlha

86%

Draw or Namlha

26%

Winning margin

Bhutan U19 wins by 2+

55%

Namlha wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bhutan U19 1+ goals

96%

Bhutan U19 2+ goals

84%

Bhutan U19 3+ goals

63%

Namlha 1+ goals

74%

Namlha 2+ goals

39%

Namlha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bhutan U19 (draw refunded)

86%

Namlha (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bhutan U19 at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

Namlha away — creates 0.89, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bhutan U19 attack 1.55 + Namlha defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 3.33

Namlha attack 0.89 + Bhutan U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bhutan U19 scores more

74%

level

14%

Namlha scores more

12%

Bhutan U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bhutan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff