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BGC Asian Scholars W vs Nasaf W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

BGC Asian Scholars W
BGC Asian Scholars W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nasaf W
Nasaf W
K. Chetthabutr 90'
L. Karachik 47'
D. Khabibullaeva 25'
8/31/2025AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Preliminary Round - 3Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BGC Asian Scholars W19%
×Draw25%
Nasaf W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BGC Asian Scholars W
0.83
Nasaf W
1.63

Nasaf W creates 96% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.00
Nasaf W
1.50

allows per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.75
Nasaf W
0.67

finishing

BGC Asian Scholars W+0.00on par
Nasaf W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BGC Asian Scholars W ↓

Nasaf W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

BGC Asian Scholars W or draw
44%
BGC Asian Scholars W or Nasaf W
75%
Draw or Nasaf W
81%

Winning margin

BGC Asian Scholars W wins by 2+
6%
Nasaf W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

BGC Asian Scholars W 1+ goals
56%
BGC Asian Scholars W 2+ goals
20%
BGC Asian Scholars W 3+ goals
5%
Nasaf W 1+ goals
80%
Nasaf W 2+ goals
48%
Nasaf W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

BGC Asian Scholars W (draw refunded)
25%
Nasaf W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BGC Asian Scholars W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Nasaf W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BGC Asian Scholars W attack 1.00 + Nasaf W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Nasaf W attack 1.50 + BGC Asian Scholars W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

BGC Asian Scholars W scores more
19%
level
25%
Nasaf W scores more
56%

Nasaf W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nasaf W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
D. Khabibullaeva
47'
L. Karachik
90'
K. Chetthabutr
BGC
Nasaf
N. Srathongvian
Manager: N. Srathongvian
V. Han
Manager: V. Han

Match Recap: BGC Asian Scholars W vs Nasaf W

Nasaf W beat BGC Asian Scholars W 2-1 in AFC Women's Champions League on August 31, 2025.

Goals: D. Khabibullaeva (25'), L. Karachik (47'), K. Chetthabutr (90').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Qarshi.