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BGC Asian Scholars W vs Melbourne City W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

BGC Asian Scholars W
BGC Asian Scholars W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne City W
Melbourne City W
10/9/2024AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 2BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

BGC Asian Scholars W5%
×Draw12%
Melbourne City W83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BGC Asian Scholars W
0.50
Melbourne City W
2.71

Melbourne City W creates 442% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.00
Melbourne City W
3.67

allows per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.75
Melbourne City W
0.00

finishing

BGC Asian Scholars W+0.00on par
Melbourne City W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BGC Asian Scholars W ↓

Melbourne City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–111%
0–215%
0–314%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

BGC Asian Scholars W or draw
17%
BGC Asian Scholars W or Melbourne City W
88%
Draw or Melbourne City W
95%

Winning margin

BGC Asian Scholars W wins by 2+
1%
Melbourne City W wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

BGC Asian Scholars W 1+ goals
39%
BGC Asian Scholars W 2+ goals
9%
BGC Asian Scholars W 3+ goals
1%
Melbourne City W 1+ goals
93%
Melbourne City W 2+ goals
75%
Melbourne City W 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

BGC Asian Scholars W (draw refunded)
5%
Melbourne City W (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BGC Asian Scholars W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Melbourne City W away — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BGC Asian Scholars W attack 1.00 + Melbourne City W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Melbourne City W attack 3.67 + BGC Asian Scholars W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

BGC Asian Scholars W scores more
5%
level
12%
Melbourne City W scores more
83%

Melbourne City W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Melbourne City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BGC Asian Scholars W vs Melbourne City W

Melbourne City W beat BGC Asian Scholars W 3-0 in AFC Women's Champions League on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.