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BGC Asian Scholars W vs Bam Khatoon W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

BGC Asian Scholars W
BGC Asian Scholars W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Bam Khatoon W
Bam Khatoon W
10/12/2024AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Group Stage - 3BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BGC Asian Scholars W34%
×Draw26%
Bam Khatoon W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.25
Bam Khatoon W
1.38

Bam Khatoon W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.00
Bam Khatoon W
1.00

allows per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.75
Bam Khatoon W
1.50

finishing

BGC Asian Scholars W+0.00on par
Bam Khatoon W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BGC Asian Scholars W ↓

Bam Khatoon W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

BGC Asian Scholars W or draw
60%
BGC Asian Scholars W or Bam Khatoon W
74%
Draw or Bam Khatoon W
66%

Winning margin

BGC Asian Scholars W wins by 2+
15%
Bam Khatoon W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

BGC Asian Scholars W 1+ goals
71%
BGC Asian Scholars W 2+ goals
36%
BGC Asian Scholars W 3+ goals
13%
Bam Khatoon W 1+ goals
75%
Bam Khatoon W 2+ goals
40%
Bam Khatoon W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

BGC Asian Scholars W (draw refunded)
46%
Bam Khatoon W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BGC Asian Scholars W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Bam Khatoon W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BGC Asian Scholars W attack 1.00 + Bam Khatoon W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bam Khatoon W attack 1.00 + BGC Asian Scholars W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BGC Asian Scholars W scores more
34%
level
26%
Bam Khatoon W scores more
40%

Bam Khatoon W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bam Khatoon W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Women's Champions League: BGC Asian Scholars W 1–2 Bam Khatoon W

Bam Khatoon W beat BGC Asian Scholars W 2-1 in AFC Women's Champions League on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.