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BGC Asian Scholars W vs Al Nassr W — AFC Women's Champions League 2024

BGC Asian Scholars W
BGC Asian Scholars W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Nassr W
Al Nassr W
K. Ngok-wong 86'
K. Chetthabutr 23'
8/25/2025AFC Women's Champions LeagueAFC Women's Champions League · Preliminary Round - 1Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BGC Asian Scholars W18%
×Draw21%
Al Nassr W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.00
Al Nassr W
2.00

Al Nassr W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.00
Al Nassr W
2.25

allows per match

BGC Asian Scholars W
1.75
Al Nassr W
1.00

finishing

BGC Asian Scholars W+0.00on par
Al Nassr W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BGC Asian Scholars W ↓

Al Nassr W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BGC Asian Scholars W or draw
40%
BGC Asian Scholars W or Al Nassr W
79%
Draw or Al Nassr W
82%

Winning margin

BGC Asian Scholars W wins by 2+
6%
Al Nassr W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

BGC Asian Scholars W 1+ goals
63%
BGC Asian Scholars W 2+ goals
26%
BGC Asian Scholars W 3+ goals
8%
Al Nassr W 1+ goals
86%
Al Nassr W 2+ goals
59%
Al Nassr W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

BGC Asian Scholars W (draw refunded)
23%
Al Nassr W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BGC Asian Scholars W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Al Nassr W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BGC Asian Scholars W attack 1.00 + Al Nassr W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al Nassr W attack 2.25 + BGC Asian Scholars W defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

BGC Asian Scholars W scores more
18%
level
21%
Al Nassr W scores more
60%

Al Nassr W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Al Nassr W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
K. Chetthabutr
86'
K. Ngok-wong
BGC
Al
N. Srathongvian
Manager: N. Srathongvian
Sandro Mendes
Manager: Sandro Mendes

AFC Women's Champions League: BGC Asian Scholars W 2–0 Al Nassr W

BGC Asian Scholars W beat Al Nassr W 2-0 in AFC Women's Champions League on August 25, 2025.

Goals: K. Chetthabutr (23'), K. Ngok-wong (86').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Qarshi.