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BG Pathum United vs Uthai Thani — League #296 2026

BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
1/25/2026League #296League #296 · Round 18BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BG Pathum United69%
×Draw20%
Uthai Thani12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BG Pathum United
2.05
Uthai Thani
0.70

BG Pathum United creates 193% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

BG Pathum United
1.71
Uthai Thani
0.40

allows per match

BG Pathum United
1.00
Uthai Thani
2.40

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw
88%
BG Pathum United or Uthai Thani
80%
Draw or Uthai Thani
31%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+
44%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals
87%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
61%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
33%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
50%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
16%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
85%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 1.71 + Uthai Thani defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.05

Uthai Thani attack 0.40 + BG Pathum United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

BG Pathum United scores more
69%
level
20%
Uthai Thani scores more
12%

BG Pathum United at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BG Pathum United vs Uthai Thani

BG Pathum United beat Uthai Thani 4-0 in League #296 on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.