BG Pathum United 1–0 Udon Thani: Result & Stats

BG Pathum United

FT

1 – 0

Udon Thani

4/3/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 8LEO Stadium (Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

BG Pathum United68%

×Draw19%

Udon Thani13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BG Pathum UnitedExpected goals in this matchUdon Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.84

BG Pathum United

2.21

Udon Thani

0.84

BG Pathum United creates 163% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

2.53

creates per match

1.16

0.53

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

BG Pathum United

2.53

Udon Thani

1.16

allows per match

BG Pathum United

0.53

Udon Thani

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Udon Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Udon Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw

87%

BG Pathum United or Udon Thani

81%

Draw or Udon Thani

32%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

44%

Udon Thani wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

89%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

65%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

38%

Udon Thani 1+ goals

57%

Udon Thani 2+ goals

21%

Udon Thani 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

84%

Udon Thani (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Udon Thani away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.89 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 2.53 + Udon Thani defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.21

Udon Thani attack 1.16 + BG Pathum United defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

BG Pathum United scores more

68%

level

19%

Udon Thani scores more

13%

BG Pathum United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff