BG Pathum United 2–1 Ratchaburi: Result & Stats

BG Pathum United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ratchaburi

T. Dangda 63'

P. Gustavsson 15'

P. Seaisakul 29'

4/26/2023

League Cup · Semi-finalsPAT Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BG Pathum United41%

×Draw27%

Ratchaburi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BG Pathum UnitedExpected goals in this matchRatchaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.11

BG Pathum United

1.30

Ratchaburi

1.11

BG Pathum United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.60

creates per match

1.63

0.60

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

BG Pathum United

1.60

Ratchaburi

1.63

allows per match

BG Pathum United

0.60

Ratchaburi

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Ratchaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw

68%

BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi

73%

Draw or Ratchaburi

59%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

18%

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

73%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

37%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

14%

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

67%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

30%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

56%

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 1.60 + Ratchaburi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Ratchaburi attack 1.63 + BG Pathum United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BG Pathum United scores more

41%

level

27%

Ratchaburi scores more

32%

BG Pathum United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

P. Gustavsson

29'

P. Seaisakul

46'

S. Kannoo← J. Kaewprom

54'

S. Sareepim← P. Gustavsson

61'

S. Yooyen

63'

T. Dangda↳ P. Sukjitthammakul

64'

J. Thongsaengphrao← P. Seaisakul

67'

A. Amornlertsak← Safawi Rasid

67'

Hein Phyo Win← J. Khemdee

73'

Irfan Fandi← Stênio Júnior

74'

Y. Maruhashi

90+2'

Cássio Scheid← S. Yooyen

BG

Ratchaburi

99

3

5

29

4

▼

Khemdee

10

▼

Kaewprom

31

⚽

▼

Seaisakul

37

Srisuwan

33

Derley

11

▼

23

26

30

14

22

16

6

▼

Yooyen

4

Veerachar

36

A

Sukjittha

10

⚽

Dangda

31

▼

Júnior

77

⚽

▼

Gustavsso

Manager: S. Komsilp

54'▲S. Sareepim←▼P. Gustavsson

73'▲Irfan Fandi←▼Stênio Júnior

90+2'▲Cássio Scheid←▼S. Yooyen

BG Pathum United substitutes

9Sareepim17Fandi41Scheid90Paipromrat98Tasa28Worasut33Sawatlakhorn2Wisetchat39Phadungchok

Manager: Xavi Moro

46'▲S. Kannoo←▼J. Kaewprom

64'▲J. Thongsaengphrao←▼P. Seaisakul

67'▲A. Amornlertsak←▼Safawi Rasid

67'▲Hein Phyo Win←▼J. Khemdee

Ratchaburi substitutes

9Kannoo21Thongsaengphrao27Amornlertsak17Win7Wattayawong16Khamsuk18Srirueng39Tanthatemee71Kasonsumol

Match Recap: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi

BG Pathum United beat Ratchaburi 2-1 in League Cup on April 26, 2023.

Goals: P. Gustavsson (15'), P. Seaisakul (29'), T. Dangda (63').

The match was played at PAT Stadium in Bangkok.

BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi — League Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi