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BG Pathum United vs Melbourne City — AFC Champions League 2018

BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
4/15/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1BG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

BG Pathum United37%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BG Pathum United
1.55
Melbourne City
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

BG Pathum United
2.10
Melbourne City
1.70

allows per match

BG Pathum United
1.50
Melbourne City
1.00

finishing

BG Pathum United+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BG Pathum United ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

BG Pathum United or draw
61%
BG Pathum United or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
63%

Winning margin

BG Pathum United wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

BG Pathum United 1+ goals
79%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
46%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
20%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
49%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BG Pathum United at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BG Pathum United attack 2.10 + Melbourne City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Melbourne City attack 1.70 + BG Pathum United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

BG Pathum United scores more
37%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
39%

Melbourne City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Melbourne City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: BG Pathum United 1–1 Melbourne City

BG Pathum United and Melbourne City drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at BG Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.